The Japanese matcha market remains under significant price pressure in 2026. Although production is expanding in several regions, demand—particularly from overseas markets—continues to grow fast enough that increased supply has not brought prices back to previous levels.
The important point is that there is no single official “Japanese matcha price.” Matcha is produced by grinding tencha, and prices vary substantially depending on origin, cultivar, harvest season, shading method, picking method and quality. For that reason, the most reliable way to understand the market is to examine tencha prices together with regional raw-tea market data.
The data from Kyoto, Kagoshima and Shizuoka all point in the same direction: 2026 is not a return to normal pricing. Instead, it represents another stage in a structural repricing of Japanese tea.
Uji and Kyoto: Premium Tencha Remains Historically Expensive
Kyoto provides some of the most transparent data because the Kyoto Prefectural Tea Industry Chamber publishes transaction statistics from the Zen-Noh Kyoto tea market.
For first-flush Uji tencha, a premium category traditionally associated with hand-picked production, the average transaction price in 2026 increased another 10.9% year on year. This increase may appear relatively moderate until the previous year's surge is considered.
Between 2024 and 2026, the average price increased by approximately 161%. Compared with 2023, the increase is approximately 230%, meaning that the market level is now more than three times what it was three years earlier.
The movement in machine-harvested first-flush tencha has been even stronger. In 2026, its average price increased 21.9% from 2025. Compared with 2024, it has risen about 219%, while the increase from 2023 is approximately 264%.
Importantly, production did increase in 2026. Kyoto's market handled 18.5% more Uji tencha and 20.3% more machine-harvested first-flush tencha than in the previous year. Yet prices still rose. This is strong evidence that current price pressure cannot be explained simply by one poor harvest. Demand remains strong even as tencha output expands.
Uji's position is also different from other major production regions. Kyoto has a long tradition of covered cultivation, and premium tencha is closely associated with cultivars such as Asahi, Samidori and Ujihikari. Hand-picking and intensive shading remain important in the highest-quality segment. These production methods help create strong umami, sweetness, vivid colour and the distinctive aroma expected from premium Uji matcha, but they are difficult to scale quickly.
This means Uji is likely to remain the most supply-constrained part of the Japanese matcha market, particularly for high-end ceremonial and specialty products.
Kagoshima: Rapid Growth and a Major Shift Toward Tencha
Kagoshima has become increasingly important to the matcha industry.
According to Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Kagoshima ranked first nationally in tencha production in the latest available production ranking. Its warm climate, long growing season, large farms and high level of mechanisation give the region significant advantages when expanding production.
Kagoshima also has a more diverse cultivar structure than many traditional tea regions. Cultivars including Saemidori, Okumidori and Seimei have been identified locally as particularly suitable for tencha production and powdered-tea colour quality.
Despite this greater production capacity, prices have risen sharply.
For Kagoshima's first-flush honcha category, which is primarily sencha rather than matcha, the 2026 market average was approximately 104% higher than in 2025—in other words, more than double in a single year. Compared with 2024, the increase is approximately 186%. Market reports based on JA Kagoshima data also indicate that first-flush tencha prices in 2026 rose to approximately 2.3 times the previous year's level, an increase of roughly 130%.
This distinction is important. The matcha boom is no longer affecting only matcha.
As farmers convert fields from sencha to tencha, less leaf becomes available for conventional green tea. The result is tighter supply across other categories, including sencha and lower-cost material used for bottled beverages.
Kagoshima therefore represents the scale-oriented side of Japan's matcha expansion. It is capable of increasing production faster than Kyoto and is becoming increasingly important for food-service, latte, ingredient and export markets as well as higher-quality matcha.
Shizuoka: A Traditional Sencha Giant Moving Toward Matcha
Shizuoka remains Japan's largest tea-growing prefecture by cultivated area and has historically been associated primarily with sencha, especially deep-steamed fukamushi sencha. Its tea industry ranges from highly mechanised plantations on the Makinohara Plateau to small mountain gardens producing aromatic premium teas.
That structure is now changing.
JA Shizuoka reported in June 2026 that conversion to tencha production had accelerated across the prefecture, with tencha output exceeding the previous year's level. Demand for both conventional and organic tencha was described as particularly strong, especially for export.
The broader Shizuoka Tea Market demonstrates how powerful the pressure has become. By July 31, 2026, the average price of Shizuoka-prefecture first-flush tea traded through the market was 77% higher year on year. Across all tea handled by the market during the same period, the average was approximately 94% higher than a year earlier.
This happened even as production recovered strongly. National statistics show that Shizuoka's 2026 first-flush crude-tea production increased by about 32% year on year.
In other words, a significant increase in physical supply was still insufficient to reverse price inflation.
For matcha buyers, Shizuoka is particularly interesting because it has the agricultural scale, machinery and research infrastructure needed to expand tencha relatively quickly. The prefecture is also evaluating cultivars such as Tsuyuhikari, Koshun, Okumidori and Saemidori for tencha suitability.
Shizuoka may therefore become an increasingly important alternative source for buyers who previously concentrated primarily on Kyoto.
Why Are Prices Still Rising?
The largest factor is overseas demand.
Japan's green-tea export value increased 98.2% in 2025 alone, with the Ministry of Agriculture specifically identifying growing demand for powdered tea, including matcha, as a major driver.
At the same time, Japan cannot expand agricultural supply immediately. National tea-growing area fell 4.8% in 2025, continuing a long-term decline caused partly by ageing farmers and labour shortages.
Even when producers decide to establish new tea fields, there is a significant lag. The Kyoto Prefectural Tea Industry Chamber notes that newly planted tea generally requires around five to six years before harvesting, making a rapid supply response difficult.
There is also competition within the existing tea area. Increasing tencha production often means reducing sencha, gyokuro, kabusecha or other tea production rather than simply creating additional tea volume.
This explains why the matcha boom is now influencing the economics of the entire Japanese tea industry.
What Should Buyers Expect?
The 2026 data suggests that Japanese matcha prices are undergoing a structural adjustment rather than a temporary spike.
Uji remains the premium and most constrained origin, where traditional production methods and limited high-quality supply make rapid expansion difficult. Kagoshima is becoming the major volume-growth centre, supported by large-scale farms, a warm climate and diverse cultivars. Shizuoka is undergoing perhaps the largest structural transformation, shifting part of its enormous sencha production base toward tencha and export-oriented tea.
Production growth may eventually reduce some of the extreme supply pressure seen in 2025 and 2026. However, the current data provides little evidence of a return to pre-2024 price levels in the near term.
For importers, cafés, manufacturers and matcha brands, the key question is therefore no longer simply “Will Japanese matcha become cheaper again?”
A more realistic question is which origin, quality level and production model can provide the best balance between quality, traceability, supply stability and price in the new market environment.
